There They Go Again, Again (UPDATED)

My Own Personal Windmill (the NYT/Siena Poll) Re-Emerges

You know what I’m about to write. You see it in the title. You see it in my history.

But The New York Times and Siena College is out with a new poll of likely voters (nationally and in Pennsylvania) - and they have the same rural oversample that makes no sense to me (nor should it to anyone else).

UPDATE: They did it in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, too.

Once again, I redid the numbers using the 2020 CNN exit poll distribution of regional voters (urban 29%, suburban 51%, rural 20%; NYT/S uses 21%, 44%, and 35% respectively). Once again, I am not saying the 2024 electorate will look exactly like the 2020 version. However, if it did, Harris would be up by 8, not even.

Likewise in Pennsylvania (CNN 2020: urban 22%, suburban 56%, rural 22%; NYT/S urban 16%, suburban 49%, rural 34%), Harris is up by double digits rather than 4 points.

UPDATE: Since this post was published, three more state polls were dropped.

In Arizona, the NYT/S split was urban 41%, Suburban, 38%, rural 23% (CNN exit poll was 46%, 46%, and 9% respectively). A 2020 electorate would wipe out Trump’s “lead” in AZ and make the race a tie.

In Georgia, the NYT/S split was urban 11%, Suburban, 49%, rural 40% (CNN exit poll was 23%, 62%, and 15% respectively). Effectively, the Times would have you believe there are absolutely no urban voters outside of Atlanta anywhere in Georgia. A 2020 electorate would put Harris up by double digits.

As for North Carolina, the NYT/S split was urban 27%, Suburban, 23%, rural 50% (CNN exit poll was 33%, 40%, and 27% respectively). Here, the Times would have you believe there are absolutely no urban Carolinians outside of the Research Triangle and Charlotte. A 2020 electorate would flip the poll result from Trump +2 to Harris +5.

Again, I am not saying the 2024 electorate will be the same as the 2020 version.

I am merely suggesting that in an environment where nearly ever single Democrat on the ballot since mid-2022 has been overperforming their polls; where Kamala Harris has re-energized the Democratic base and is winning over more prominent Republicans than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden combined…

…am I really supposed to believe the major change in voter turnout is a 75% increase in rural voters? While the suburban vote falls?

Hard pass.

Voting has started (at least in my state it has). We have 44 days until it ends. There will be more polls, including polls from the Times and Siena.

…and if they still include rural oversampling, there will more commentary from me on the subject.

This is my own personal windmill. Someone find my horse.